BACK TESTING RESULTS
Below is the results of backtested trades starting from 01/01/2003 and ending 24/06/2010 showing the Profits / Losses and the Net Returns.
Trendseeker Back Testing -January 2003 : 24/06/10 (unaudited)
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Ratios
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Realised Net Return
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AUD
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Ave Profit/Loss Ratio…..
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5.34
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Average Winning Trade…......................
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$6,537.19
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Average Losing Trade……....................
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-$1,224.46
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Number of Trades…………..
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750
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Largest Winning Trade……..................
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$42,3665.59
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# of Profitable Trades………
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264
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Largest Losing Trade…….....................
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-$3,588.48
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% Profitable Trades………
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35.20%
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Equity High.................................................
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$1,182,465.40
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Max Drawdown…………........................
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-$20,320.11
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Number of Long Trades…..
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402
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% Max Drawdown....................................
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15.28%
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# Profitable Long Trades…..
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152
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Net Profit Long..........................................
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$645,303.10
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% Profitable Long Trades….
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37.81%
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Net Profit Short……………....................
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$485,429.43
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Total Net Profit/Loss................................
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$1,130,732.53
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Number of Short Trades..
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348
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Gross Unrealised Profit/Loss...............
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$0.00
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# Profitable Short Trades…
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112
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Total Return (includes open positions)
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$1,130,732.53
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% Profitable Short Trades..
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32.18%
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2008 Year Net Realised Return………....………..
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29.62%
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2009 Year Net Realised Return…………......……
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24.56%
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Max. Consecutive Profits..
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7
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2010 Year Net Annualised Nominal Realised Return...
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9.92%
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Max. Consecutive Losses.
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10
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Total Net Realised Return………………………....
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2261.47%
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(all returns based on 50K capital start, Jan 2003)
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Annual Nominal Percentage Rate..........................
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42.32%
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PLEASE NOTE: PAST RETURNS ARE NOT A RELIABLE INDICATOR OF FUTURE RETURNS.
SEE BELOW FOR IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER ON BACKTESTING
CK Locke &Partners Pty Ltd (CKL)'s research division has designed mechanical trading products that can be used to trade futures markets. CKL is currently recommending a technically based trend following application that represents a diversified portfolio of 13 futures contracts. This application and signals therein have been back tested from a diversified range of international futures contracts using seven years historical price data. Option buying can also be recommended on the underlying futures contracts.
Risk Disclosure
Commodity Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK. AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.
CK Locke & Partners Pty Ltd has prepared this information and/or advice in good faith and believe the content to be reliable, however no warranty is given as to its accuracy and persons who rely on it do so at their own risk. In so far as any such information or advice contains material from other sources, CKL has not checked those sources and accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of that material. The Client should satisfy himself as to the correctness or otherwise of the statements contained in the material. All information and advice provided to the Client is for the private use of the Client and is not to be passed to any third party without prior written consent
Diversifying into futures trading is generally accepted as a high risk –high reward class of investment. Therefore the onus is on you to consider whether futures’ trading suits your situation. The strategy’s hypothetical results are based on hypothetical back testing, hence CKL, while confident of future success are not stating or implying that hypothetical trading results are indicative of future performance. Furthermore CKL are not stating or implying that any profitable track record is representative of all clients’ accounts. The onus is on the client to determine whether or not there is sufficient capital to trade using the strategy.
CKL may offer advice as to starting capital amounts, however we accept no liability whatsoever if that advice proves to be incorrect. Similarly, if you are issued with any advice, CKL is not stating or implying that you have sufficient capital. Clients may wish to allocate more or less capital to that which is recommended (if at all). Lower starting capital will result in higher percentage profits or losses and vice versa.
The potential for loss exists as well as profit when trading speculative investments such as futures contracts. As with other speculative investments, there is a possibility of losing all your allocated capital. It is expected that you are aware of the risks and prepared to accept the risks associated with this type of investing. CKL cannot obtain sufficient personal information regarding your current financial circumstances and investment objectives. Therefore the onus is on you to determine whether futures’ trading suits your situation. Furthermore this paragraph does not indemnify any party from the risks mentioned herein and any other risks that are documented in the futures client agreement forms and in particular risk disclosure statement/s that form part thereof.